Bitcoin (BTC) bears are at it again, driving the price down nearly another x% on March 8 during the weekend when volume is at its thinnest.

Then is the pre-halving rally over already? Or is it just about to become started?

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

The four-hr outlook

BTC USD 4-60 minutes chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin broke out of a worrying descending aqueduct on March 5. However in the terminal hr, after retesting the support line of this channel several times, information technology has now broken back into it just iii days later.

This gives Bitcoin two very real downside targets of $8,100 and $7,500 in the short term. With the upside resistance being showtime at $viii,700 to get out of the channel, and then $10,500 and $11,050, respectively.

However, one has to question the validity of such drastic price action over the weekend, and adjacent week could run across a monstrous bullish ascent, much akin to the power move nosotros saw from Bitcoin on October. 25, 2022, when the price jumped from $7,400 to $10,500.

But what are some of the leading indicators telling u.s.a.?

Relative Strength Alphabetize (RSI) indicator

BTC USD RSI 4-hourly Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator on the 4-60 minutes shows that nosotros could have some distance left to autumn with a reading of just above 31. This tells us that Bitcoin is approaching heavily oversold on this cardinal timeframe, and historically it must break below 30 before seeing a reversal.

BTC USD RSI 1 hour Source: TradingView

The hourly, nevertheless, looks massively oversold, reading at eighteen.62, which is approaching levels nosotros oasis't seen since Feb. 15.

One would hope to see a reversal at this stage. However, despite the RSI actualization to pivot on this date, the Bitcoin price did not, and connected to fall from $9,700 to $8,400 over a catamenia of 2 weeks.

But what does the Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) Indicator tell u.s.?

The MACD is looking set to cross bearish on the weekly

BTC USD weekly MACD Source: TradingView

As I have mentioned several times, the weekly MACD is a keen indicator when looking to identify balderdash or carry trends.  Withal, I expressed concerns back in January in my analysis stating that weekly MACD was exhibiting similar signs to that of the false bull phase nosotros saw around Baronial-September 2022.

During this phase, bulls were lured into a false sense of security, which saw Bitcoin fall from $eight,000+ to sub $4K in a matter of weeks, and it appears my concern could have been valid.

However, in late 2022 in that location wasn't an imminent halving of Bitcoin mining rewards effectually the corner similar there is now. But then again, at that place also wasn't a global pandemic either. However I'm still to run across any major correlation between Covid19 and the Bitcoin cost as of yet, so I'll not exist going down that road but yet.

The week alee should give us some answers as we take two historically bullish indicators ahead of the states, and should they fail to increase the price of Bitcoin next week, peradventure we need to start looking at the reality of a potential global slowdown having a very negative effect on the price of Bitcoin.

The CME gap

BTC USD CME weekly Source: TradingView

I've said it endless times, if you are not trading the CME gaps, "do y'all even crypto bro?" The CME gaps occur when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closes for trading on a Friday evening and reopens on a Monday afterwards large weekend moves, which leaves a gap in the charts.

At that place are many theories as to why gaps make full. Ane is that orders left on the books from the Fri prior remain unfilled, in this case, sell orders of Bitcoin at $9,165 need to be bought to make full the gap on the charts.

But if the market opens at $8,100, who would buy at a premium of $nine,165? Potentially someone who has a long position on margin, that stands to turn a profit from a guaranteed long that's who. And in such an easy marketplace to move, is information technology any wonder that historically 90% of CME gaps for Bitcoin get filled?

This isn't the but bullish indicator though, there is another reliable indicator that has served as a crystal ball this twelvemonth, and that is the mining difficulty.

Mining difficulty is gear up to explode side by side week

BTC mining difficulty. Source: BTC.com

Next week, the mining difficulty is ready to increase past nearly 8%  and that'southward the most information technology has increased all year. In fact, it's the most information technology has increased in the concluding six months, so this is a very positive sign for Bitcoin.

At the beginning of 2022, the Bitcoin mining difficulty kept increasing every ii weeks past anywhere between four% and 7% and, in turn, the toll of Bitcoin followed; and typically this happens on the aforementioned twenty-four hours the increase was implemented.

If this follows next calendar week, and so Bitcoin could come across a tremendous reversal, merely only fourth dimension will tell.

The week ahead for BTC price

The week ahead for Bitcoin is quite important for several reasons. Right now, with the country of the global panic, there is a lot of irrational behavior (for example, how much toilet paper did you buy this week?)

As such technical analysis might be completely useless, and that's a very real fact that people should consider this forthcoming week. If the CME gap and BTC difficulty increment have no impact, we might encounter that $4K Bitcoin I spoke about in Jan after all.

In terms of resistance this calendar week, Bitcoin first needs to repossess $eight,700 and flip this to support once again to suspension out of this bearish channel. After this, I would be looking to $9,200 and then $10,500 every bit the key levels to pause, with the last heavy area of resistance being effectually $11,050 before nosotros finally get to the moon.

On the downside, $8,100 and $7,500 are the two levels virtually likely to see back up formed, and if $7,500 fails to hold, it opens up $4,000 in 2022 in one case again as a possible scenario.

The views and opinions expressed hither are solely those of @officiallykeith and practice not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own enquiry when making a decision.